Neil shares his insights on the future of cartons and corrugated.  Read our article in the February 2026 IPBI publication.

With sustainability ever on the agenda, why has demand for paper-based packaging grown so slowly? Neil Osment, Managing Director of packaging market research company NOA, explains.

Sustainability is a moving target, constantly redirected by the competing interests of stakeholders and various global influences.

Take Europe. European Green Deal sets an ambitious course to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, however its implementation faces internal resistance.

At government level, the same opposing forces are at play. Around Europe, successive governments have failed to meet environmental targets, letting key commitments lapse

Regulation is, ironically, also hampering the move towards sustainability. While the EU’s PPWR aims to promote circularity, its reliance on Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) favours lightweight materials, giving plastic an unintended advantage.

Then we look at affordability. With inflation squeezing household budgets, consumers are seeing eco-friendly packaging as aspirational but out of reach in the current climate.

Overall, the last five years have been a story of lacklustre growth in the European economy as a whole, which is mirrored in the demand for packaging generally. Between 2020 and 2025, demand for corrugated grew by just under 2%, while for the same period folding cartons fared better, growing by nearly 7%.

However, we believe this will turn around. The prospect for corrugated over the next five years looks more positive, with growth forecasts of around 8%, with a slightly better story for folding cartons.

Looking ahead, brand owners recognise that consumers want sustainable packaging – provided it remains affordable. Consequently, we will see ‘greener’ solutions driving most of the growth in paper packaging between 2025 and 2030.

Sustainable packaging is gradually becoming the industry standard. Leading this change are big brands like Cadbury, which is trialling cardboard tubs; Lego, which has swapped plastic bags for paper pouches; and IKEA, which aims to eliminate all plastics from its operations by 2030.

In short, after a bumpy few years, the next five will be about making ‘green’ packaging the easy choice. While the past has been a struggle of high costs and changing rules, we are now entering a time where sustainable and being affordable go hand in hand – to the benefit of the planet and paper-based packaging producers.

There’s more about our predicted demand for corrugated in our new Strategic European Corrugated Guide. For more information, email listening@noa.uk.net.